Gold, What's Next?
The Aden Forecast by Pamela Aden Mary Ann Aden
July 25, 2007
Who would’ve thought in May, 2006 when gold shot up
to $722 that a year later gold would have trouble getting
near the $700 level? This does sound toppy, but gold is
telling us to stay invested.
From its May, 2006 peak, gold fell for several months
until it reached a low in October 06 (see Chart 1).
This was the low at $562 and gold has been rising
since then… for nine months now.
Each low since October, in January and in March,
has been higher, which is why the March low at $640
is important. As long as gold stays above $640, the
higher highs will stay in force and gold will also be
staying above its 65-week moving average. This
average is the key uptrend in the bull market. So
while you could say gold looks toppy, you could also
say it has a solid base.
Chart 2B shows our normally great gold timing indicator. It works well in identifying intermediate moves in gold and it
warns of possible changes in the major trend. The C rises tend to be the best intermediate rise in gold’s recurring cycle
when it reaches a new bull market high.
The flip side are the D declines. They tend to be the worst intermediate declines in a bull market, but their lows are
higher than the previous B lows.
A double D low occurred last year but this year the A through C movements haven’t been too clear.
Now, however, it looks like the April 20 high was an extended, longer than normal A rise (from last October to April), and
gold then moved lower in a B decline. B declines tend to be mild, which has been the case so far, and a bottom appears
to be forming.
WHERE GOLD CURRENTLY STANDS
If gold now stays above $670, a C rise will clearly be underway. Gold could then test $696, the April high and once that’s
broken, $722 will be the next stop. Above $722 would mean a strong C rise and a strong bull market are underway.
Basically, the metals are looking good. Gold shares led the way by rising strongly and gold is following (see Chart 3).
The weaker dollar, the subprime situation, rising oil, fund buying, geopolitical tensions and the first signs of a flight to
quality are all boosting the market.
Plus, gold shares are showing solid strength. The XAU gold & silver share
index is at a 14 month high and it’s super strong above 145. Likewise for
the HUI index above 343.
The U.S. dollar index is also starting to break down into new record low
territory (see Chart 4). This will be confirmed once the dollar index
(basis September) declines and stays below 80. With several of the
currencies hitting multi-decade highs and gold moving up strongly,
this will probably happen soon. And when it does, the dollar will likely
fall sharply. That’ll be super bullish for gold and it’ll likely then propel
it to new highs.
Additional Articles For further study:
"Dollar Gains Against Euro; Yen as US Stock Futures Rebound" Bloomberg 7/25/07
"Asian Stocks Rebound; Led by JFE Holdings" Bloomberg 7/30/07
"Dollar Decline Looks Set to Resume Next Week" FX Outlook 7/27/07
"Inflation in India; How to Tackel it" Rediff 3/21/07
"The Coming Collapse of the US Dollar" Rediff 6/11/07
“Signs of the Times” by Dr. Irwin Kellner
“Fed Chickens Out” by MoneyNews.com editors
“Gold, What's Next” by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden 7/25/07
“Industrial Metals Rise - Gold Also Gains" 7/20/07
“GOLD: Big Picture Focus” by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden
"Oil Rebounds Following Decline of the Dollar" 727/07
"Set to Resume Next Week" by FX Outlook 7/27/07
"The Faultlines in the Economy" by Alan Maas
"U.S. Current-Account Deficit Deserves Some Noise" by John M. Berry
"Why the sudden dollar plunge?" By John Stepek, MoneyWeek
If you have any questions regarding these or any other articles you've read, feel free to contact
me by calling me directly David Hellier at (877) 314-COIN (2646) or email me anytime at
dave@gold-precious-metals-ira.com.
The Aden Forecast by Pamela Aden Mary Ann Aden
July 25, 2007
Who would’ve thought in May, 2006 when gold shot up
to $722 that a year later gold would have trouble getting
near the $700 level? This does sound toppy, but gold is
telling us to stay invested.
From its May, 2006 peak, gold fell for several months
until it reached a low in October 06 (see Chart 1).
This was the low at $562 and gold has been rising
since then… for nine months now.
Each low since October, in January and in March,
has been higher, which is why the March low at $640
is important. As long as gold stays above $640, the
higher highs will stay in force and gold will also be
staying above its 65-week moving average. This
average is the key uptrend in the bull market. So
while you could say gold looks toppy, you could also
say it has a solid base.
Chart 2B shows our normally great gold timing indicator. It works well in identifying intermediate moves in gold and it
warns of possible changes in the major trend. The C rises tend to be the best intermediate rise in gold’s recurring cycle
when it reaches a new bull market high.
The flip side are the D declines. They tend to be the worst intermediate declines in a bull market, but their lows are
higher than the previous B lows.
A double D low occurred last year but this year the A through C movements haven’t been too clear.
Now, however, it looks like the April 20 high was an extended, longer than normal A rise (from last October to April), and
gold then moved lower in a B decline. B declines tend to be mild, which has been the case so far, and a bottom appears
to be forming.
WHERE GOLD CURRENTLY STANDS
If gold now stays above $670, a C rise will clearly be underway. Gold could then test $696, the April high and once that’s
broken, $722 will be the next stop. Above $722 would mean a strong C rise and a strong bull market are underway.
Basically, the metals are looking good. Gold shares led the way by rising strongly and gold is following (see Chart 3).
The weaker dollar, the subprime situation, rising oil, fund buying, geopolitical tensions and the first signs of a flight to
quality are all boosting the market.
Plus, gold shares are showing solid strength. The XAU gold & silver share
index is at a 14 month high and it’s super strong above 145. Likewise for
the HUI index above 343.
The U.S. dollar index is also starting to break down into new record low
territory (see Chart 4). This will be confirmed once the dollar index
(basis September) declines and stays below 80. With several of the
currencies hitting multi-decade highs and gold moving up strongly,
this will probably happen soon. And when it does, the dollar will likely
fall sharply. That’ll be super bullish for gold and it’ll likely then propel
it to new highs.
Additional Articles For further study:
"Dollar Gains Against Euro; Yen as US Stock Futures Rebound" Bloomberg 7/25/07
"Asian Stocks Rebound; Led by JFE Holdings" Bloomberg 7/30/07
"Dollar Decline Looks Set to Resume Next Week" FX Outlook 7/27/07
"Inflation in India; How to Tackel it" Rediff 3/21/07
"The Coming Collapse of the US Dollar" Rediff 6/11/07
“Signs of the Times” by Dr. Irwin Kellner
“Fed Chickens Out” by MoneyNews.com editors
“Gold, What's Next” by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden 7/25/07
“Industrial Metals Rise - Gold Also Gains" 7/20/07
“GOLD: Big Picture Focus” by Mary Anne and Pamela Aden
"Oil Rebounds Following Decline of the Dollar" 727/07
"Set to Resume Next Week" by FX Outlook 7/27/07
"The Faultlines in the Economy" by Alan Maas
"U.S. Current-Account Deficit Deserves Some Noise" by John M. Berry
"Why the sudden dollar plunge?" By John Stepek, MoneyWeek
If you have any questions regarding these or any other articles you've read, feel free to contact
me by calling me directly David Hellier at (877) 314-COIN (2646) or email me anytime at
dave@gold-precious-metals-ira.com.
